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Traditionally, statistical time series methods like moving average (MA), auto‐regression (AR), or combinations of them are used for forecasting sales. Since these models predict future sales only on the basis of previous sales, they fail in an environment where the sales are more influenced by exogenous variables such as size, price, color, climatic data, effect of media, price changes or campaigns. Although, a linear regression model can take these variables into account its approximation function is restricted to be linear. Soft computing methods such as fuzzy logic, artificial neural networks (ANNs), and genetic algorithms offer an alternative taking into account both endogenous and exogenous variables and allowing arbitrary non‐linear approximation functions derived (learned) directly from the data. In this paper, two approaches have been investigated for forecasting women's apparel sales, statistical time series modeling, and modeling using ANNs. Four years' sales data (1997‐2000) were used as backcast data in the model and a forecast was made for 2 months of the year 2000. The performance of the models was tested by comparing one of the goodness‐of‐fit statistics, R², and also by comparing actual sales with the forecasted sales of different types of garments. On an average, an R² of 0.75 and 0.90 was found for single seasonal exponential smoothing and Winters' three parameter model, respectively. The model based on ANN gave a higher R² averaging 0.92. Although, R² for ANN model was higher than that of statistical models, correlations between actual and forecasted were lower than those found with Winters' three parameter model.

This chapter uses a welfare-based conceptual framework for the assessment of costs and benefits associated with nontariff measures in the presence of market imperfections such as asymmetric information and environmental or health externalities. The framework allows for evidence-based comparative assessments of alternative regulatory approaches addressing these imperfections. The conceptual work is illustrated with an empirical case study of labeling internationally traded fish products.

While awaiting resolution of their legal process, undocumented migrants (UM) face several challenges, including limited access to public health care. The purpose of this paper is to survey UM attending a detention centre in Oporto (Portugal) to estimate the prevalence of mental health disorders in this population.

A retrospective chart review was performed with the relevant sociodemographic and clinical data of all UM in the process of coercive removal from Portuguese territory, observed by Doctors of the World, during three years (2014–2016). The Tenth Version of International Classification of Mental and Behavioural Disorders was used for nosological classification.

In total, 393 detainees were eligible for the study. Most detainees were male (84 per cent) and 76 months was the mean length of stay in Portugal before detention. In total, 29 per cent of detainees were diagnosed with a mental and behavioural disorder. The most prevalent diagnosis was neurotic, stress-related and somatoform disorders (47 per cent). UM with dual diagnosis (28 per cent) led to the articulation with the integrated centres of drug addiction, which provided and monitored opioid substitution therapy. Female UM were more prone to develop any mental and behavioural disorder when compared to men (χ²=7,017; p<0.05).

In total, 9 per cent of the detainees were excluded from this study due to incomplete data on their medical charts. Some detainees presented oppositional behaviour, hostility towards others and refused to be assessed by the medical team. Both situations could have biased the prevalence of mental disorders. Finally, the appropriateness of the western model of mental health disorders (ICD-10) in the study population is controversial, considering the culture-bound phenomenology and syndromes.

This paper identified the most prevalent mental health disorders in UM detained in Portugal. The most prevalent mental health disorders were either stress-related (associated with the detention itself) or related to previous patterns of substance abuse. Given the study outcomes, it is highly recommended to mobilise human and technical resources to provide specialized mental health care to UM at least while detention policies could not be changed.

We issue a double Souvenir number of The Library World in connection with the Library Association Conference at Birmingham, in which we have pleasure in including a special article, “Libraries in Birmingham,” by Mr. Walter Powell, Chief Librarian of Birmingham Public Libraries. He has endeavoured to combine in it the subject of Special Library collections, and libraries other than the Municipal Libraries in the City. Another article entitled “Some Memories of Birmingham” is by Mr. Richard W. Mould, Chief Librarian and Curator of Southwark Public Libraries and Cuming Museum. We understand that a very full programme has been arranged for the Conference, and we have already published such details as are now available in our July number.

The British North American colonies were the first western economies to rely on legislature-issued paper monies as an important internal media of exchange. This system arose piecemeal. In the absence of banks and treasuries that exchanged paper monies at face value for specie monies on demand, colonial governments experimented with other ways to anchor their paper monies to real values in the economy. These mechanisms included tax-redemption, land-backed loans, sinking funds, interest-bearing notes, and legal tender laws. I assess and explain the structure and performance of these mechanisms. This was monetary experimentation on a grand scale.

Brazil is struggling as the unemployment rate is 12.4% and nearly 13m people are unemployed. The fourth Industrial Revolution is advancing, and the country needs to consider how it will impact the labor market. This work explores the impact of automation on the Brazilian workforce to supply decision-makers with information about the subject.

The authors converted the probability of computerization from the seminal work of Frey and Osborne to each of the more than 2,500 occupations in Brazil. They then crossed the automation probability with socioeconomic information about workers and companies available in the Brazilian Ministry of Labor Database.

In total, 60% of employment in Brazil is expected to be highly impacted by automation in the coming decades, with eight out of the ten occupations with the biggest workforce being highly automatable. Automation probability decreases as workers' education level increases, with the most significant difference between workers with higher education and those without it. The results show other inequalities in the impact of automation: the higher the wage, the lower the automation probability of occupations; the bigger the company, the lower the automation index; and workers from 16 to 24 years old have considerably higher chances of being automated.

This work is the first to study, in the context of the fourth Industrial Revolution, the impact of automation in Brazil with a socioeconomic analysis.

Imprisonment can severely alter, disrupt, or even terminate mothering. Yet, often seen by society as giving up on or abandoning their children, women in prison tend to invoke less empathy or tolerance than women whose mothering is disrupted through other means, such as illness. Therefore, while many women in prison attach great significance to the role and responsibilities of motherhood, the restrictions of the prison environment impacting the ability to participate in mothering, compounded by a sense of guilt, failure, stigma, shame, and role strain can pose a direct threat to mothering identities of women in prison. Central to the research from which this chapter has developed was the challenge of making sense of the constructed meaning of motherhood for women in prison. Drawing on feminist narrative approaches, significance is placed not only on the content of stories but equally on the social role of the story told (Plummer, 1995). Three key and interrelated narratives are highlighted: “Difficult Disclosures,” “Double-edged Sword,” and “Negotiating Care.” This chapter concludes by considering the implications of the research for policy and practice and how through exploring the stories of mothers in prison we are able to hear about and value a diversity of mothers’ lives, so that these mothers do not have to inhabit the margins of motherhood.

IT is too early to examine what the change of Government may portend for libraries sustained attract malign attention from any party. We are aware enough, however, that a time of financial stringency lies ahead for every public activity. In book production, the restrictions on imports may worsen a position which is bad enough as it is. There may not be a sinister intention in the gesture of cutting the salaries of Cabinet Ministers by a sum which for several of them represents about £25 or about a half crown a week on such salaries as librarians earn. We hope there is not. Although all good Britons will make necessary sacrifices; but they want to be sure that they are necessary and not, as usually is the case, merely attacks on public servants. We are told that there will be no Geddes axe this time, but experience shows that the politician can always find a way of reversing a statement in what he imagines to be the public interest. Fortunately those likely to be affected are better organized than they were in the early twenties.

This study was designed to examine burnout in US emergency medical services (EMS) providers. It examined burnout scores measured using the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI) on a convince sample of US EMS providers as well individual variables associated of burnout in this population.

This study used a convince sample, recruited using social media, of EMTs and paramedics and engaged them in an online survey to obtain information on burnout in this population. The responses were analyzed using stand statistical approached in order to determine MBI burnout scores, as well as which individual variables were influential in contributing to burnout in EMS.

This study found that most EMS providers had high levels of depersonalization and medium levels of personal accomplishment and emotional exhaustion. Gender differences were found as they were differences based on agency type and response area.

The main limitation is the nature of sample recruitment. The use of social media for the recruitment of this type of study has not been done before. Furthermore, it is a convince sample. This issue has limited impact on the results and the ability to apply them more generally because despite the convince nature of this sample, the sample is similar to those used in other studies as well as reflect that national statistics on the make of this population. The second major limitation of this study is that it does not include job specific and organization specific factors that may contribute to burnout. The findings for the variables used in this study suggest that future works should encompass these variables as well.

This study sets a clear foundation for further examination of US EMS providers and burnout. It helps to establish key ideas that can be followed up. Difference and key issues among US EMS providers need to be understood on a more comprehensive level before the assertion that they are similar to EMS providers worldwide. Ultimately, there is a need to develop better screening tools to assess burnout in EMS as well as to develop prevention and intervention programs based on clear empirical data.

Burnout EMS provides are a harm to themselves as well as the organization that employ them. The cost of burnout EMS provider crosses over to patient care and provision of care.

This study is one of the first to examine such a large US-based sample of EMS providers using the MBI. Other studies have used smaller sample or other tools to assess burnout in providers

Women remain under-represented in leadership positions in both clinical medicine and medical education, despite a rapid increase in the proportion of women in the medical profession. This chapter explores potential reasons for this under-representation and how it can be ameliorated, drawing on a range of international literatures, theories and practices. We consider both the ‘demand’ for and ‘supply’ of women as leaders, by examining: how evolving theories of leadership help to explain women’s’ leadership roles and opportunities, how employment patterns theory and gender schemas help to explain women’s career choices, how women aspiring to leadership can be affected by the ‘glass ceiling’ and the ‘glass cliff’ and the importance of professional development and mentoring initiatives. We conclude that high-level national strategies will need to be reinforced by real shifts in culture and structures before women and men are equally valued for their leadership and followership contributions in medicine and medical education.